Coming into last weekend's game against the Vikings, the Jacksonville Jaguars had primarily been a man coverage, single-high safety defense this season. But when Justin Jefferson and the Minnesota offense stepped onto the field, that changed. The Jaguars mixed up their defense completely, playing with two high safeties on 93 percent of their snaps in an effort to prevent Jefferson from beating them with explosive plays.
It worked in the sense that Jefferson was held to a season-low 48 receiving yards on five catches, snapping a seven-game streak with at least 80 yards. He had a long gain of just 15 and Sam Darnold threw three interceptions when targeting his No. 1 receiver. In other ways, it didn't exactly work; the Vikings racked up 402 total yards and 28 first downs on 82 offensive plays, posting the highest single-game time of possession (42:19) in the NFL this season. Despite Darnold's turnovers, Minnesota escaped with a 12-7 victory.
"They pretty much played a one-high (defense) majority of the season," Jefferson said. "And once we came in, now they switch up their whole entire defense. And that's kind of what I've been saying this whole entire season, that it doesn't really matter how defenses play other teams. When we step foot on that field, the whole defense changes, it's a lot more shell coverage, it's a lot more two-high. And that's something that we have to deal with."
To be clear, this isn't some new, groundbreaking strategy. Teams have used two-high shells, safety help, double-teams, and all kinds of coverages against Jefferson throughout his prolific career. Kevin O'Connell is used to No. 18 being the primary focus of defenses every week. But the Jaguars seemed to lean into it more than anyone else had this season. And because they were able to slow Jefferson and come up with three interceptions, other teams — like the Titans this weekend — might follow suit and commit to that plan.
When they see those looks, the Vikings must adapt and have a plan of their own. Oftentimes, that simply means taking what the defense gives them. It means committing to the run game with Aaron Jones, who had 101 yards from scrimmage against the Jaguars. It means utilizing advantageous looks over the middle of the field for players like T.J. Hockenson and Josh Oliver, who combined for 124 yards on 12 catches. There are ways to still scheme up looks for Jefferson and Jordan Addison against two-high shells, but if defenses are going to sell out to take away explosive passes on the outside, the Vikings have to be content to methodically move the ball down the field.
"If teams want to just cover us deep and allow us to take everything short and allow the run game to explode, then that's what we have to do, that's what we have to take," Jefferson said. "We can't get greedy and try to force passes into those shell coverages and two-high (looks)."
"For me personally, it's about taking what the defense gives me," Darnold said. "Obviously, it's a cliche, but for a reason. If they want to play it deep to short on first and second down, having that mindset of just finding completions. But at the same time, if we have something on to be able to beat that coverage, let it rip and have all the confidence in the world doing it."
The numbers bear out the idea that two-high shells are the way to slow down Jefferson. He's been significantly more effective this season against single-high looks, according to Next Gen Stats. On Darnold's first interception, for example, Jaguars cornerback Tyson Campbell was able to be very physical with Jefferson off the line of scrimmage because he knew he had safety help behind him. When Darnold still attempted to hit Jefferson on a slant, Campbell was able to deflect the ball into the air for a pick. The third interception came on a corner route that was left too far inside and undercut by split-safety Darnell Savage.
Justin Jefferson was the intended receiver on all three of Sam Darnold's interceptions against the Jaguars; all three were against split-safety coverage.
On the season, Jefferson has accumulated +29.1 EPA when targeted against single-high and -7.8 EPA against split-safeties. pic.twitter.com/VoVvxwjVv9
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 11, 2024
Related: Dan Orlovsky says Sam Darnold, Vikings need to 'get back to basics'
Again, there are ways for the Vikings to move Jefferson around and still get him the ball against those looks, but it's a lot harder to take the top off the defense and come up with explosives on the boundary. At the same time, those shells present opportunities to run the ball effectively and to target soft spots in front of the safeties over the middle of the field. The Vikings' two longest plays in Jacksonville were a 28-yard seam ball to Oliver and a 26-yard catch-and-run for Hockenson, who is too quick to be covered by a linebacker.
Nice move by T.J. Hockenson to shake Jags LB Foye Oluokun and get open for a chunk gain pic.twitter.com/ncVjX5y1Rt
— Will Ragatz (@WillRagatz) November 11, 2024
Jefferson obviously wants to continue putting up big numbers, but he's also content to be the center of attention for defenses if it means his teammates are having success and the Vikings are moving the ball.
"It happens sometimes," said Jefferson, who is second in the league this year with 831 receiving yards through nine games. "Teams try to take away the main weapons on the offense. And I just can't get frustrated in those type of situations. We all eat and we all perform as one team. So as long as we're moving that ball and we're scoring and putting points on the board, it doesn't matter about my production. As long as we're winning and putting Ws on the board, that's all that really matters."
The Jaguars' strategy kept Jefferson from having a big game, but the Vikings had four drives that lasted at least 12 plays, three of which traveled 68-plus yards. Had they not struggled so much to score touchdowns — they threw three interceptions and settled for four field goals on seven trips to at least the Jacksonville 30-yard-line — Sunday's game would've been a blowout. There are risks to every defensive approach against an offense with the weapons the Vikings possess.
"There’s trying to have a coverage plan to Justin, and there’s an entire aspect of team defense against Justin," O'Connell said. "Give them credit, they were willing to sacrifice time of possession, the run game, tight ends working the middle of the field, things like that. And if we don’t turn the ball over, maybe they look back on that (and think) 'was that really the best way to go about it?'"
