Sam Darnold’s renaissance season in Minnesota will likely be a one and done.
In the midst of a Pro Bowl season as the Vikings starting quarterback, Darnold is projected to be in high demand when he becomes an unrestricted free agent this offseason.
In fact, Kristopher Knox of Bleacher Report recently ranked Darnold No. 1 on his first 2025 Free Agency Big Board of the year.
While Darnold is thriving in Kevin O’Connell’s system, tied for fourth in the NFL in touchdown passes (17) and fifth in passer rating (107.8), the team is unlikely to compete for his services beyond 2024, with rookie J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings. For that reason, Knox predicts Darnold will land a rich, multi-year free agent contract with either the New York Giants or Tennessee Titans this offseason.
Knox believes teams with similar offenses as the Vikings, preferably from the Sean McVay coaching tree, would be ideal for Darnold. Here was his take on both the Giants and Titans:
“Tennessee would be a logical landing spot, as head coach Brian Callahan previously served under McVay protege Zac Taylor,” Knox wrote. “Darnold's fit with Biran Daboll and the Giants wouldn't be as clean, though I expect New York to exhaust all options if and when it pulls the plug on Daniel Jones.
“Darnold isn't a slam-dunk QB option, but he has elite tools, has archetypal size (6'3", 225 lbs), has shown incredible growth and will still only be 27 years old at the start of free agency. In an offseason that features few other free-agent signal-callers and a questionable quarterback draft class, Darnold is poised to be the biggest name on the market.”
Is there a scenario where Darnold stays in Minnesota beyond 2024? Let’s dig deeper.
Buy or sell: Sam Darnold leaves Minnesota in 2025 free agency
It was likely Minnesota’s plan all along to bring McCarthy along slowly, hand him the reins in 2025, and take advantage of his rookie contract to build a championship contending team around him. It’s possible that plan changes, though, after McCarthy was ruled out for his entire rookie season with a knee injury.
The former Michigan star is expected to be a full-go by spring workouts next year, but the Vikings don’t have to play him. They’re already building a winning culture in Minnesota, and how this season fares could go a long way towards Darnold’s future. If the Vikings reach the NFC Championship Game or Super Bowl, are they really ditching the quarterback who led them there?
The Vikings are all-in on Darnold this season, swinging a shrewd trade for left tackle Cam Robinson after Christian Darrisaw’s season-ending knee injury. He’s been an excellent fit, and has been uber efficient while keeping Justin Jefferson fed and happy.
Still, he’s not without flaws. He’s taking way too many sacks (sixth most in the NFL) and already has 10 giveaways on the season (7 interceptions, 3 lost fumbles). This discussion changes if the Vikings reach the Super Bowl, but for now, Darnold projects to be moving on in 2025.
The Verdict: Buy
