After the impressive fashion in which the Philadelphia Eagles won Super Bowl LIX, man-handling Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs with a relentless four-man rush, the NFL has taken to analyzing the model. Vic Fangio's scheme puts a premium on getting quarterback pressure with only four rushers (without blitzing), which allows seven guys to drop back into various zone coverages.
It's an approach that works if you've got the horses up front. The Denver Broncos' defensive line took a massive step forward last year, with Zach Allen notching 8.5 sacks on his way to an All-Pro nod and John Franklin-Myers totaling seven sacks, but nose tackle D.J. Jones could be on his way out as a free agent. The big boys on the D-line were a big reason the Broncos led the NFL in sacks (63).
When it comes to restocking the D-line shelves, one name that Broncos fans have taken a shine to since the Super Bowl is Eagles defensive tackle Milton Williams. But NFL.com's Kevin Patra is cautioning teams about overpaying for Williams on the free-agent market.
"Williams' play during the Eagles' run to a Lombardi Trophy -- including in Super Bowl LIX, when he logged two sacks,one of them a strip-sack -- likely made him a heap of cash. At 25 years old with burgeoning potential, he's the type of beef clubs will fight over on the open market. Williams owns the size and athleticism to push the pocket, as his 12.5 QB pressure percentage suggests. The hesitancy is whether he's worth $21 million-plus per year," Patra wrote.
The Broncos will have a little north of $40 million in salary-cap space to play with this offseason, and that budget will have to include the team's decisions on its own 19 free agents. Williams could be an immense addition to Vance Joseph's defense, but relative to his experience and production, paying $21-plus million per year might be a bit rich for Denver's blood.
However, as Patra writes, if free agency is about projecting a player's future and not past production, then the Broncos shouldn't necessarily cross Williams off the list based on price.
"As a part of Philly's rotation, he's started just 19 games in four seasons, with 11.5 total sacks. Free agency is about projecting the future rather than paying for past production, and in that regard, I wouldn't fault a team for falling in love with Williams' potential," Patra wrote. "The former third-rounder has an outstanding skill set, but we've seen others wither after moving out of a rotation. Can Williams be a big-money anchor? Is he worth Dexter Lawrence or Quinnen Williams money? Playing next to Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis, Williams was double-teamed on just 36.3 percent of his pass rushes in 2024. How will he do if that figure jumps significantly??"
That's a great question, and how potential NFL suitors answer it will determine whether Williams' market truly climbs to $21M/year. However, aside from the Super Bowl shine, one thing he has working in his favor is his age (25). Any team signing him would at least know that he's still got at least three or four years of production in the tank as he continues through his prime playing window as a pro.
Will the Broncos pursue Williams? Time will tell, but Allen, Franklin-Myers, and Malcolm Roach are all entering a contract year, so Denver will have to keep one eye on this offseason and another on next year when it comes to budgeting free-agent signings along the D-line.
The Broncos are expected to fill their offensive needs through the NFL draft and their immediate defensive holes through free agency. If true, the Broncos will have to budget for inside linebacker and safety reinforcements, as well as D-line.
My educated guess is that Denver doesn't spend the money on Williams — if his market truly resolves around $21M/year. But if it turns out to be an overestimation of his value, and he's in the $13-15M/year range, the Broncos would be remiss to not kick his tires.
