We’re almost a quarter of the way through the 2024-25 regular season and Avalanche star forward Mikko Rantanen, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, has still not signed a contract extension. And this isn’t quite how the Avs usually do business, at least not with their core. Not since Gabriel Landeskog in 2021.
MUST WATCH College Football This Week w/ Crissy Froyd! | Daily Sports Rush
Playback speedNormal
Quality-
Playback speed
0.25
0.5
0.75
Normal
1.25
1.5
1.75
2
Unmute
00:00
/
01:51
Nathan MacKinnon signed his new deal more than nine months before becoming an unrestricted free agent. Devon Toews, who also signed a max-term eight-year contract extension, played just one game in the final year of his last deal before signing. But despite reports of an extension nearing, neither of those scenarios has played out for arguably a top-five winger in Rantanen.
Instead, the reports from several NHL insiders have gone from confidence a deal would be reached soon to the two sides not being close.
It begs the question: What’s going on with Rantanen’s contract extension? What changed?
Rantanen is off to a great start this season. He already has two hat tricks and is among the NHL leaders in goals and points.
I want to preface the remainder of this piece by being forward about the fact that I’m strictly speculating. I don’t have any insider knowledge of the Rantanen extension talks. But with that, let’s delve into some of my thoughts on this entire fiasco and how it could unfold.
It’s become common knowledge at this point that Leon Draisaitl’s extension changed things for Rantanen’s camp. His agent, Andy Scott, also represents the Oilers superstar center and recently signed a contract to make Draisaitl the highest-paid player in the league starting 2025-26.
Draisaitl, who’s in the same echelon as Rantanen, if not a little bit better, will make $14 million per season until 2032-33.
Is Rantanen looking for that high of a number? Probably not.
But I think Scott wants Rantanen to get pretty close to it. We all know the Avs are paying MacKinnon $12.6 million, and that general manager Chris MacFarland likely wants Rantanen to come in at a lower number than that. But how much lower?
The biggest concern I have is whether the stalemate is because of the actual number or the percentage of the cap. Ever since Covid caused the salary cap to remain flat, we’ve accustomed ourselves to certain numbers being handed out to a particular group of players. But that’s all changing now. The rising cap means salaries will rise year over year. I truly think MacKinnon’s $12.6 million won’t even be a top-10 cap hit in a few years. And when he played for that much in 2022-23, nobody made more than him.
Is Scott looking at the percentage of the cap as the target for his negotiations with the Avs?
Perhaps they’re simply shooting for a higher number than what’s been offered from Colorado. For example, maybe they’re looking at a rise from something around $11.5 million to $12.5 million. Are they understanding of the MacKinnon ceiling and just looking to get as close to that number? If so, perhaps MacFarland is trying to avoid shelling out that much knowing Cale Makar’s next deal will probably blow past both players. In this scenario, things will likely get figured out a lot sooner.
But if it’s a cap percentage issue, I’d be a lot more concerned. It would take a massive sacrifice from one of the two sides to make things work in this case. In the first year of MacKinnon’s extension, the salary cap was $83.5 million. MacKinnon was eating up 15.1% of the salary cap with his deal.
The cap has since risen to $88 million and is likely going to jump by at least $4 million again next season. In a scenario where it’s $92 million, Rantanen’s agents could argue that, for example, 14.5% of the cap is an appropriate number, which puts him at a lesser percentage than MacKinnon at the time of the extension. Which, is a sign that Rantanen’s agents understand that MacKinnon is the bigger star.
But it also means Rantanen would be making $13.34 million. Anything near that number is a nonstarter for the Avs. And it’s also why using the percentage of the cap could make this a lot more complicated. But it’s also the way agents are negotiating nowadays.
I still believe they’ll get a new deal figured out before July 1. And my prediction remains the same as it was before Draisaitl signed his deal:
Eight years, $12 million AAV, which just so happens to be $96 million in total dollars. Throw in a large amount of signing bonuses and a front-loaded deal and we just may have a deal that makes everyone happy and keeps the core together.
The question remains, when, if at all, do we get there?
