Sam Darnold signed a one-year contract with the Minnesota Vikings this offseason as their bridge quarterback to rookie J.J. McCarthy.
McCarthy’s second knee surgery to address swelling has at least raised speculation on whether Darnold’s stay could extend into 2025.
That could be an expensive proposition for the Vikings, however.
Marcus Mosher of the 33rd Team recently predicted that Darnold’s next contract will exceed $28 million in average annual value if he hits the open market. Here was his breakdown:
“Here are some recent quarterback contracts in free agency that could be comparable for Darnold and his new team:
- Derek Carr, Saints: $37.5M AAV
- Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers: $33.3M AAV
- Geno Smith, Seahawks: $25M AAV
- Garder Minshew, Raiders: $12.5M AAV
"Assuming Darnold can continue to play at this same level for the remainder of the 2024 season, he should earn a big deal in free agency. It seems unlikely he'll reach the same numbers as Carr and Mayfield, but don't be surprised if he gets a few more million per year than Smith, considering he is only 27. Someone will take a chance on Darnold and his talent again.” — Mosher
MORE: NFL insider: Sam Darnold ‘bridge deal’ with Vikings not off the table
Considering Darnold signed with Minnesota on a one-year deal worth up to $10 million, these projections make it unlikely he sticks around in the Twin Cities. His market value will be at its highest point since he entered the league, and another stop-gap deal with the Vikings likely comes with the caveat that McCarthy will take the reins at some point during the 2025 season, if not Week 1.
Darnold’s an easy guy to root for, and his resurgence running Kevin O’Connell’s offense has been one of the NFL’s best stories in 2024. But the former No. 3 overall pick will likely leave for greener pastures as a free agent this March.
