When the Carolina Hurricanes tried to storm back in Round 2, the New York Rangers started to look exposed. It was especially glaring in one defenseman’s minutes.
Carolina’s Game 4 surge took advantage of some of the weaknesses in Jacob Trouba’s game. In his 13:39 minutes, the Hurricanes dominated play with a 25-11 edge in shot attempts. Shot volume matters at the end of the day, but with Carolina, it isn’t everything if the quality isn’t there to match. In Trouba’s minutes, it clearly was important. New York rocked a 35 percent expected goals rate with its captain deployed.
The Rangers may have scored twice with Trouba on the ice, but they allowed three back — and the defender’s mistakes directly contributed to that scoring.
Game 5 wasn’t much kinder to Trouba: a minus-13 shot attempt difference, sub-26 percent expected goals rate and minus-1 goal differential at five-on-five.
The responses to those two dismal performances? A bump up to the second pair with K’Andre Miller in matchup minutes.
And that’s where he is now projected to start the Eastern Conference final against a star-powered Florida Panthers team. The question is whether he’s up to the task of the second pair and the workload that comes with the territory.
Matchup minutes are nothing new for Trouba. He’s helped shoulder the burden against top competition throughout his tenure in New York, usually with Miller. The two were among the biggest constants in the league this year with about 985 minutes together, the 13th most of any defensive pair. In that time, the Rangers earned a 49 percent expected goals rate which essentially set a standard for that role this season in New York. The results were a bit worse, with the Rangers getting outscored 42-36 in their minutes.
Trouba resumed that role after returning from injury with some dicey results, which led to the coaches shaking up the pairs for the last few games of the season. Braden Schneider jumped up to Miller’s right while Trouba slotted in the third pair with Erik Gustafsson in a more sheltered role.
That’s how the Rangers started the playoffs until Game 6 when Trouba was moved back up with Miller.
On paper, a player with a 47 percent expected goals rate through 10 playoff games doesn’t exactly raise any red flags on the second pair. But Trouba’s numbers throughout the postseason as a whole may not accurately depict just how much he’s struggled at times.
While going through the tape, let’s highlight some questionable reads and decisions that a team as high-octane as Florida could take advantage of.
The Washington Capitals aren’t the deepest of teams, which allowed the coaches to manage each pair’s workload as they saw fit. Ryan Lindgren and Adam Fox took on a heftier workload than usual on the top pair, with Miller-Schneider behind them. That second pair fell below the regular-season standard set in New York, with 46 percent of the expected goals share while getting outscored 2-1. Their start to the postseason was strong but faded down the road.
Trouba and Gustafsson, on the other hand, with eased matchups against Hendrix Lapierre’s and Nic Dowd’s lines, earned 63 percent of the expected goals share and outscored opponents 2-0.
The Rangers kept their pairs intact for Round 2 after sweeping the Capitals. But the Hurricanes were another challenge completely; with more forward depth, everyone’s workload got harder. Especially Miller’s.
Miller’s pair took over top matchups from Fox and Lindgren, likely for two reasons: Lindgren’s struggles and potential injury concerns. In five games, Miller-Schenider lost the shot battle but had the edge in expected goals with under 53 percent and broke even in goals (3-3).
The weak link of the Rangers blue line was the third pair. Gustafsson-Trouba was outshot 88 attempts to 49, earned a 41 percent expected goals rate and was outscored 5-2 while primarily matching up to Carolina’s bottom six.
Both defenders had lackluster results against Carolina, but only one is being tasked with a bigger role after getting the bump to Miller’s right in Game 6.
Lapses in Round 2 in particular make the argument against tougher usage for Trouba.
Here’s a prime example in Game 2 against the Hurricanes. Trouba turned the puck over with a weak backhand pass through the neutral zone. Three Rangers were drawn to Sebastian Aho along the boards, leaving Jake Guentzel wide open for a scoring chance that he capitalized on. It started with a bad pass and continued with slow reactions and poor anticipation, leading to a goal against.
Or Game 4, which was filled with costly lapses and bad reads. On Stefan Noesen’s 2-0 score, Trouba’s turnover keeps a tired Rangers unit on the ice after a long shift that ends in a goal against.
Trouba was quickly on the ice for three five-on-five goals against in the first period alone in Game 4. Not every goal was on Trouba entirely. Take the Evgeny Kuznetsov goal: Barclay Goodrow has to wear that one, but Trouba’s poor positioning screened Igor Shesterkin.
On the 3-1 Aho goal, Artemi Panarin’s coverage contributed to a goal against. But that play started with a bad decision by Trouba to be aggressive in the neutral zone, putting Panarin in a more defensive position than he should have been.
And Game 5 wasn’t much better. Take the Jordan Martinook goal. Trouba faced pressure from Jack Drury below the goal line and gave the puck up. Martin Necas centered the puck and Martinook quickly sent it past Shesterkin.
Not every mistake against Carolina ended up in the back of the net, like Trouba’s decision to pinch up the ice and take himself out of position to throw a hit in double-overtime. While it didn’t lead to a goal against or a game-ending play, it was an unnecessary risk in that situation, especially when he didn’t have the footspeed to race back into play as it shifted back to the other end of the ice.
To Miller and Trouba’s credit, despite facing a heavy dose of Aho’s line, the Rangers were the better team in Game 6 with that pair on in shot volume (26-17 attempts) and quality (56 percent expected goals rate) and had the scoring to show for it (2-1 goals).
But Game 6 wasn’t without similar gaffes that cost Trouba earlier in the series. They were mistakes that make a scoring chance all the more dangerous and, against opportunistic shooters, can end up in the back of the net.
There’s a reason the Rangers shifted away from the Miller-Trouba pair to end the year.
Schneider has shown he can be the safer player to slot alongside Miller in matchup minutes, thanks to his quietly effective game and ability to limit scoring chances in transition.
But the safe pick for the second pair may not be the right pick if the team is left with a volatile third pair.
By separating Trouba and Gustafsson, each player gains more support across the way with Miller on the second pair and Schneider on the third. That may put them in a better position against a deep team like the Panthers. And that, along with a more solid Game 6 performance, could be why the Rangers are sticking with a reunited second pair of Miller and Trouba.
Trouba’s numbers may be passable for matchup minutes in New York, but they may not capture just how costly some of his missteps have been. That leaves the Rangers with a serious risk of getting burned against the Panthers and the potential for another defensive re-adjustment.
Not every defensive lapse in Trouba’s minutes was necessarily on him. But at a certain point, the Rangers need the player who was designed to be one of their top guys to play like it. Not only does he need to stabilize his game, he needs to be ready to step up to cover for others. Trouba has to show the Rangers he can handle playing in high-leverage situations and be a tough defenseman to play against — and not just in a physical sense.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, AllThreeZones and NaturalStatTrick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
