Predicting the Avalanche's important free agent decisions this offseason

As things stand, the Avalanche are set to enter the summer with $8.7 million in salary cap space and 18 players signed. Not a bad position, especially when it looks like they'll have a full season from captain Gabriel Landeskog in 2025-26.

The organization has six pending unrestricted free agents set to hit the market if the Avalanche don't sign them. Some are more important than others but they won't come cheap. Here's a look at the six players that could be changing addresses this summer.

Brock Nelson

J.T. Compher, Alex Newhook, Ryan Johansen (remember him?), Casey Mittelstadt and now Nelson. Since the Avalanche lost Nazem Kadri in free agency after winning the Stanley Cup in 2022, it's been a revolving door at the second-line center position. Chris MacFarland gave up a lot to get Nelson at the trade deadline, including top prospect Calum Ritchie, so to lose the 33-year-old to free agency would add insult to injury. Is overpaying to keep him a better option, though? Complicating things more is that it's a weak free agent class when it comes to finding a replacement.

The Avalanche were happy with Nelson's play despite his zero goals in the playoffs. Nelson finished third on the team in individual scoring chances against the Stars but couldn't sneak any past Jake Oettinger.

"He didn't get a goal in the playoffs, but we don't judge everything by goals, right?" general manager Chris MacFarland said. "He's been a proven goal scorer in this league. That's the danger of short sample sizes in the playoffs."

The Avalanche do have the cap space to sign Nelson. Considering it's a premium position, he is likely their priority. The question is, does Nelson want to stay?

Around NHL circles, there have been rumors swirling even prior to the trade deadline that Nelson is destined to return home to Minnesota, a team that will be loaded with cap space. The reported offer he turned down from the New York Islanders was for three years at around $7.5 million per season. For Colorado to lock him down, it might just come down to how much term they're willing to give him.

Jonathan Drouin

What a difference a year makes. Drouin received long-term offers from other NHL teams over the summer but decided to return to a situation in Colorado that he was very comfortable with on a one-year deal at $2.5 million. After an injury-riddled season that ended poorly, it would seem unlikely he'll receive better offers than he did last summer.

The health issues shouldn't come as a surprise, as Drouin has only played 60 games once over the last six seasons. Jared Bednar seemed frustrated with Drouin's lingering injury during the first half of the season and the winger fell out of favor in the postseason, playing fewer than 8 minutes in Game 7. If he's willing to re-sign for cheap again, another contract makes sense from a value standpoint, but any deal with term would be risky with his injury history.

Ryan Lindgren

Lindgren was solid after being acquired from the New York Rangers, although he was burned pretty badly on Mikko Rantanen's game-tying goal in Game 7. He returned for the playoffs after dealing with what a source called a rib injury late in the regular season. The coaching staff clearly trusted him. This one may simply come down to his price tag. If it costs near what he's currently making, the Avalanche are probably out.

The 27-year-old is coming off a long-term contract that saw him make $4.5 million per season. That's a lot of money for someone with sub-par underlying numbers who provides little offense, probably more than the Avalanche can afford. Given the big contracts similar defensemen in Joel Edmundson and Ilya Lyubushkin signed last summer, you can bet at least one NHL team will be willing to fork over a lot of money if he hits free agency.

Joel Kiviranta

This might be the ultimate "buyer beware" player hitting free agency this summer.

Jared Bednar loved Kiviranta's consistency all over the ice and was someone he trusted, but there's no denying he benefited from some puck-luck this season. He was also wildly streaky. Kiviranta scored 16 goals on just 84 shots on goal, giving him a 19% shooting percentage. The odds of him replicating that again are low consider he was a career 8% shooter coming into the year.

What was crazy about Kiviranta's season is the insane scoring spurts he would go on. During a three-game span in October he potted four goals. A similar three-game span in December saw him score five more. In the 25 games in-between, he scored just one. A four-game goal scoring streak in early March saw him get randomly hot again, but he scored only one after March 11, including zero in the playoffs.

The Avalanche — or any NHL team — must be careful not to overpay based on one outlier season. Signing depth players to big contracts is like death by a thousand cuts to any team's cap situation.

Jimmy Vesey

Basically a throw-in when the Avalanche acquired Lindgren, Vesey played just nine games for Colorado and didn't dress in a playoff game. If the team is looking for a cheap depth forward for next season, you could do a lot worse than the Boston native. He made just a little over league minimum the last two seasons.

Erik Johnson

Does the Avalanche icon want to continue his playing career? Johnson was steady in the regular season games he played after the trade deadline, but his foot speed got exposed by Dallas in the first two games of the playoffs. Another player that would cost around the league minimum to keep around.

What I'm hearing

—Mikko Rantanen is hot right now. Very hot. Like, breaking-NHL-records hot. The Avalanche didn't trade him to Dallas, but they did trade him without the Hurricanes having a contract extension in place. There was always a risk it could come back to bite them, although they probably didn't expect it this year. There's a reason why teams rarely trade elite talent.

It took him a while to get going but he's there. I found this quote from Stars coach Pete DeBoer interesting.

"He played in one place for almost a decade, and he played with one guy for almost a decade, and that guy (MacKinnon), no one else in the league has that guy that plays that exact game," DeBoer said. "You've been working off a certain partner like that for a decade, it's not an easy transition."

If someone who had been working at the same location for a decade was transferred twice in a span of three months, they'd probably go through similar adjustments. Elite talent typically finds a way, though.

—Colorado took a risk running it back with Alexandar Georgiev and Justus Annunen to start the season and it blew up in their faces. They're in a much better position to start next season with Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood.

"I think that's one thing going into next year, we know our goaltending is set. We're going to be good," Joe Sakic said.

What I'm seeing

—Maybe Jake Oettinger should be Team USA's starter at the Olympics in February 2026 and not Connor Hellebuyck.

—The Edmonton Oilers looked dead in the water after two games against the Los Angeles Kings. Guess you can't kill a team that has Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, though. They're never out of any game.

What I'm thinking

—Watching the Eastern Conference series, then watching the Western Conference series, is like watching the junior varsity games before the varsity teams hit the field.

—Good for Denver Pioneers coach David Carle, who signed a contract extension with DU. He's still only 35 and has time on his hands when it comes to eventually making the jump to the NHL. Coaches are often made the scapegoat, so he may as well stay in a comfortable spot until his dream job opens up. Unless he already has it.