NFL Analyst Goes Overboard With J.J. McCarthy, Sam Darnold Comparison

 
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Quarterback J.J. McCarthy of the Minnesota Vikings.
The Minnesota Vikings are in the midst of transitioning from Sam Darnold to J.J. McCarthy as their starting quarterback, and according to at least one NFL analyst, the only possible direction to go is up.

That’s a reasonably hot take considering Darnold has world-class arm talent earned Pro-Bowl honors with Minnesota last season, as the Vikings rolled to a 14-3 record and the second playoff berth in head coach Kevin O’Connell’s three seasons at the helm. Darnold parlayed his success into a $100.5 million contract offer and a starting job with the Seattle Seahawks in 2025.

In fairness, the Vikings let Darnold walk, so they must believe in McCarthy’s ability to eventually surpass him — at least from a value perspective (talent and contract cost combined), if not in terms of pure talent and/or on-field production.

John Kosko of Pro Football Focus made a considerable leap from the aforementioned stance on McCarthy as compared to Darnold in his prognostication of the 22-year-old’s career arc. Kosko contended on Thursday, June 26, that turning into Darnold is McCarthy’s floor, while asserting that McCarthy’s ceiling is that of MVP candidate and former Super Bowl quarterback Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals.

 
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GettyFormer Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold.
Kosko’s take is all the more fiery given that McCarthy has never actually played a regular-season snap after missing the entirety of his rookie campaign with a knee injury he sustained in August 2024.

Still, his argument for McCarthy’s ascension is as follows:

McCarthy wasn’t asked to carry the national-championship Michigan team, but when he needed to, he delivered. While he wasn’t elite at generating big-time throws, nor was his turnover-worthy rate spectacularly low, McCarthy excelled under pressure and when facing the blitz. His success rate in both situations ranked third in the class, behind Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix.

Darnold’s career looked over until his incredible 2024 season with the Vikings. Assuming McCarthy is better than Darnold for his career isn’t a stretch, but nothing is ever a guarantee at quarterback.
 
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GettyMinnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
Of course, Vikings fans have to be excited by Kosko’s projection that McCarthy could turn into Burrow via an examination of advanced analytics. That said, it might be smarter to temper expectations early on in McCarthy’s career.

Doing so may prove difficult, however, as O’Connell has proven himself a master schemer as has defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Outside of the quarterback position and cornerback depth in the secondary, Minnesota has built itself a roster with few questions marks or potential areas of real weakness.

That the entire blueprint is hinging upon McCarthy blooming right away in his first regular-season action represents a significant wager on the Vikings’ part. In reality, the franchise is engaged in a three-year plan built around McCarthy’s $22 million rookie contract.

His injury soaked up the first year of that value, though Darnold played for just $10 million in 2024, so Minnesota found significant value at the position anyway. The Vikings don’t necessarily need to win it all this year for their bet on McCarthy to pay out, but they have to claim a ring — or come very close — in one of the next three campaigns for the experiment to be a success.

Minnesota had a lot of salary cap space to spend this season due to the inexpensive quality of its QB room, though the team is staring down the barrel of a $60 million cap deficit in 2026 as of Thursday, which will complicate the players it can keep and/or add next offseason.
Max Dible covers the NFL, NBA and MLB for Heavy.com, with a focus on the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears and Cleveland Browns. He covered local and statewide news as a reporter for West Hawaii Today and served as news director for BigIslandNow.com and Pacific Media Group's family of Big Island radio stations before joining Heavy. More about Max Dible