Mikko Rantanen will be staying with the Colorado Avalanche. Now, that we’ve gotten that prediction out of the way, let’s look at what it will take for the Avs to keep the impending UFA in Colorado.
Rantanen is entering the final year of his six-year, $55.5 million deal signed in 2019. The deal has carried a $9.25 AAV for the Avs.
But before getting into the specifics of what Mikko Rantanen’s new deal could look like, let’s consider if his current deal has been worth the money.
First of all, he’s coming off back-to-back 100-point seasons. He had 92 points in 2021-22, with 41 and 66 points in the COVID-shortened 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons, respectively. It could be argued that if Rantanen had played a full 82-game schedule in both of those years, he could have hit the 100-point mark.
So, just on those numbers alone, It’s fair to say that Rantanen has earned the money paid to him. He’s made a meaningful contribution to the club, especially during the 2022 Cup run when he registered 25 points in 20 games.
As such, the biggest question heading into this season will be if Rantanen can make it back-to-back-to-back 100-point seasons. If everything goes well, there should be no reason why Rantanen wouldn’t be able to do it.
Moreover, there hasn’t been any indication that Rantanen wants to leave Colorado, clearing the way for the two sides to work something out.
There are two ways Rantanen could go about his next deal.
First, he could pursue a rather short-term deal, say, a four-year contract. At 28 (his birthday is late-October), that contract would make him a UFA again at about 33, offering him one last chance at a big free-agent payday. While this scenario is plausible, it doesn’t seem likely.
Second, Rantanen could be looking for a maximum-term eight-year deal. Such a contract would make him a UFA at about age 37. At that point, if he is still an effective player, Rantanen might be looking at another two or three-year deal at a discounted rate.
This second scenario seems likelier as both sides would most likely want to get a deal done and then forget about it for a long while.
The biggest issue then becomes, how much do the Colorado Avalanche pay Rantanen? Rantanen could be looking at a deal somewhere between $11 to $12 AAV. Perhaps the Avs may want to give him a deal similar to Nathan MacKinnon’s eight-year, $100.8 million contract.
Considering that MacKinnon is just now entering the second year of his deal, it would make sense for the Colorado Avalanche to back up the truck for Rantanen. The club would have their two core forwards locked up for nearly a decade.
But there’s one caveat: The Avalanche should be mindful of their cap space as Cale Makar will need a new contract in 2027. While that’s not an issue now, it will be sooner than the club thinks. So, it’s always best to think a few moves ahead.
