With the current collective bargaining agreement set to expire following the 2025-26 season, there are a few things the hockey world should prepare for.
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For starters, there doesn’t seem to be any reason for a lockout. The league and Players’ Association are motivated to quickly get a new deal done. And for good reason. The NHL is making more money than ever before and the revenues are rising at a rapid pace. But with the rise in revenues comes a rise in the 50/50 split between the owners and players. And if the next CBA is anything like the one pre-COVID — which is expected — then the salary cap will quickly jump to well over a hundred million in short order.
When the current CBA was signed during COVID, players agreed to a maximum 5% rise each year as a tradeoff for a limit on escrow. And because of the lack of ticket sales in a predominantly gate-driven league, the players took home a lot more than 50% of hockey-related revenues between 2020 and 2022. The money they owed has since been paid off and the league is thriving. But they still have another year under the current agreement with a capped 5% rise before things go back to normal.
The salary cap ceiling for 2024-25 is $88 million. If it rises by 5%, it’ll go to $92.4 million next season. But following the expiry of the 2025-26 CBA, the projected revenues mean the cap could rise more than $18 million in one year. Which would result in a huge payday for players who need new contracts in a year and a half.
But the league and players are discussing a potential two-year rise, which would mean next summer’s cap could be as high as $97 million if not more. At least in this scenario, players next summer can also benefit from the extra cap space.
For teams like the Avalanche, who are operating at or around the ceiling, a rising salary cap helps. But a rapid rise over one season — or even two — might be tricky to navigate. Simply because it’s going to benefit the players who are coming up on expiring deals — especially the stars. That means Igor Shesterkin, Mitch Marner, and even Colorado’s Mikko Rantanen this offseason. In the summer of 2026, superstars like Kirill Kaprizov and Connor McDavid will likely blow past today’s highest-paid stars.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported on Friday that contract talks have quieted down for the Marner, Rantanen, and Shesterkin camps. The agents are patiently awaiting word on where the cap will land next year before continuing negotiations, and understandably so. No player wants to be the first to sign and quickly realize they left money on the table.
So what now? I have thoughts.
Not just with Rantanen, but with other Avs players and the general standard for player salaries in the coming years.
Mikko Rantanen
Starting with the gigantic elephant in the room, Rantanen, who as of Sunday is tied for third in league scoring behind teammate Nathan MacKinnon and Kaprizov, is looking for a massive payday. But how big?
I wrote last week about how his agent might very well be negotiating based on the percentage of the cap. With this approach, it might be time to prepare for a reality where Rantanen is making more than MacKinnon’s team-friendly $12.6 million. The top stars in the NHL are fed up with the disparity between their salaries compared to the superstars in other sports. So it doesn’t seem like many are willing to take friendly deals or operate under an internal cap. At least not the best players.
Rantanen signing a big contract at or around Leon Draisaitl’s $14 million AAV will help the next superstar, and it’ll continue to rise from there.
I’m genuinely intrigued by how this plays out. I still can’t imagine a scenario where the Avs move on from Rantanen, whether on July 1 or via trade. But Colorado just might need to pay him more than MacKinnon to extend the relationship. Especially if Rantanen continues to produce the way he has through the first 21 games of the season.
Vegas Handing Out Contracts
The expected rise in the cap is why Golden Knights GM Kelly McCrimmon is seemingly handing out contracts like they’re candy in recent weeks. Over the past month alone, he’s locked up Shea Theodore for seven years, Brayden McNabb for three, and Brett Howden for five.
The hope is for those deals to quickly become bargain contracts. Unfortunately, the Avs don’t have a lot of work to do with players they know they’d like to keep. Artturi Lehkonen, for example, isn’t eligible for a raise until the 2026 season since his contract runs through the end of 2026-27. Valeri Nichushkin is also locked up long-term.
The only notable piece up for an extension outside of Rantanen is Jonathan Drouin, but since he’s on a one-year deal, he isn’t eligible to re-sign until January 1. He’s also a unique scenario where his future with the Avs could hinge on the future of captain Gabriel Landeskog returning to play.
This is something to keep an eye on as teams start to scramble to sign contracts for those mid-level players willing to take the guaranteed money. Especially before the cap for 2025-26 is announced.
Samuel Girard
This particular rise is precisely why I just can’t see the Avs consider trading Samuel Girard. His $5 million cap hit for two more seasons after this one is already proving to be a bargain and will be even more so after the next two offseasons.
Players like Girard, who consistently play top-three minutes on defense, are worth more than $5 million. By next summer, that standard is going to rise again to a point where $8 million+ might very well be the expectation for players of his ilk.
Alexandar Georgiev
It’s a shame the Avs haven’t built enough trust in Alexandar Georgiev to lock him up now during the season. If they had, they might’ve been able to get him for a lower cap hit than the standard for starting goalies in a year or two. Albeit he’d still be due for a raise from his current $3.4 million salary.
Cale Makar
Cale Makar’s current contract runs through the end of the 2026-27 season. By that time, we might see our first $20 million cap hit. If Makar doesn’t reach that number, he’ll probably be pretty close.
In short, prepare to be comfortable with a new standard. The average fourth-line forward in 2027 might be making more than what a standard middle-six forward currently makes.
It’s about time NHL salaries grow at a rapid pace.
