Ever since the Las Vegas Raiders won 10 games and made it to the playoffs back in 2021-22, it’s been a rough stretch for the franchise. Now on their third head coach since the end of that year, the organization bottomed out last season by going 4-13.
The hope is that Pete Carroll can help lead the team to better days. With a veteran quarterback like Geno Smith at the helm, expectations are to win now (and do so frequently). How realistic is that bar being set? One analyst thinks it’s mostly reasonable.
In a story for NFL Media, Brooke Cersosimo listed the Raiders as the 2024 non-playoff team that’s made the biggest leap.
Improvement on Offense Projected to Fuel Raiders’ 2025 Season
Most of Cersosimo’s prediction stems from the offense. She believes that with the Carroll-Smith combination leading the way, improvement is inevitable. That’s without even considering the other moves the Raiders have made.
“The four-win Raiders entered this offseason with a long to-do list,” Cersosimo wrote. “Perhaps their biggest move was hiring Pete Carroll, who previously revived a franchise and turned it into a perennial winner. Reuniting with his former coach to take care of ‘unfinished business,’ Geno Smith is an upgrade over both Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew.
“Also, the Raiders landed one of the top players in this year’s draft in running back Ashton Jeanty. They added young talent to the WR corps in second-rounder Jack Bech and fourth-rounder Dont’e Thornton. Smith should have no shortage options with this young group, led by all-world tight end Brock Bowers. At least on paper, this looks far from the offense that ranked 29th in scoring and 27th in yards a year ago.”
Last season, Las Vegas ranked 31st in EPA/play on offense according to SumerSports. Smith led the No. 19 unit with the Seattle Seahawks in a 10-win campaign. With Bowers coming off a rookie season for the ages and Jakobi Meyers posting the first 1,000-yard season of his career in 2024, there’s a pair of formidable weapons at Smith’s disposal.
Jeanty will be the true difference-maker. Unsurprisingly, the Raiders were dead last in rush EPA/play last season. They were also 32nd in success rate on the ground. Adding someone who led the nation in rushing yards (2,601) and rushing touchdowns (29) a year ago is one heck of a way to strive for improvement.
Unexpected Development Could Swing Outcome of Las Vegas’ Defense
It’s the other side of the ball that could doom the Raiders this year. Cersosimo cited the defense as “much improved,” although that’s when Christian Wilkins was expected to play in Las Vegas. After going on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list at training camp, the 29-year-old wound up being released by the team in a shocking move. The Raiders are making their stance on the transaction clear.
The loss of Wilkins leaves a significant hole in the middle of the defense. It also places more weight on players like Adam Butler and offseason signing Leki Fotu to perform at a high level. Until a move is made – and if a move is made – to replace Wilkins, it could be a committee approach.
Still, the Raiders do have some things to hang their hat on with the defense. At the linebacker position, the additions of Elandon Roberts, Germaine Pratt and Devin White should help. In the secondary, both Jeremy Chinn and Eric Stokes are quality pickups. Third-round cornerback Darien Porter is facing high expectations as a rookie. There’s plenty of room for growth considering the defense ranked 25th in scoring and EPA/pass last season.
It’s unclear whether Cersosimo’s claim will be true without Wilkins. Either way, it’s hard to not respect the Raiders’ efforts over the last handful of months.
