There’s no question, with the way things are trending in the NFL, that it’s a matter of when, not if, a wide receiver will sign the first-ever contract with an average annual value of $35 million per year or more.
Former New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins general manager Randy Mueller, who now serves as an NFL staff writer for The Athletic, believes it could happen as soon as this year with four of the league’s top wideouts looking for new deals.
“The receiver market has already been reset twice in the past month, and we are on the verge of another jump with Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase and Brandon Aiyuk all up for new deals,” Mueller wrote. “All four could plausibly reset the market, so we might be looking at $35 million per year — which would be 13.7 percent of the cap — or more.”
Of the four teams Mueller listed — Minnesota, Dallas, Cincinnati and San Francisco — the Vikings are likely in the best spot to fork over that kind of money. The team has quarterback J.J. McCarthy on a rookie contract for the next four, possibly five seasons, and fellow receiver Jordan Addison on the cheap for at least the next two seasons.
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“If I were running the Vikings, I would pay Jefferson and keep churning WR2 at the end of Addison’s deal,” Mueller added.
The 49ers have doled out their share of big-money extensions to several of their top stars, and they’re already paying receiver Deebo Samuel $23.8M per season. They’ll have to pony up $50M-plus annually when they sign quarterback Brock Purdy to a new deal after the 2025 season.
Dallas is taking its time with Lamb’s extension. It also has to factor in the monster deal edge-rusher Micah Parsons will command after next season and decide if it wants to pay QB Dak Prescott $50M or more when his contract ends after this season.
Aside from Jefferson, it could be argued that Chase is the most integral to his team’s success. Cincy invested $275M in QB Joe Burrow over the next five years, and it would be foolish not to do the same with his favorite weapon, especially if the team loses fellow WR Tee Higgins next offseason.
“If I were the Bengals, I would probably sign Chase — who still has two years left on his deal — as soon as possible to avoid resetting the market after Lamb’s and Jefferson’s deals come in,” Mueller said.
