Clearing Cap Space, Offseason Changes & Should Avs Re-Sign Nelson?

   

An entire week has passed since the Game 7 loss two weekends ago. Honestly, I think this is the best time to start looking ahead.

 
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I know a lot of you are upset with me really digging my teeth into the Mikko Rantanen thing. But even I have, and will continue to admit that the Avalanche’s roster is still highly talented and the front office can really make a splash this summer.

With that, let’s dive into some of the changes that could come Colorado’s way.

Avalanche Mailbag 1.0: Coaching, Management, & What Went Wrong in the Playoffs?
Avalanche Mailbag 2.0: Revisiting the Mikko Rantanen Saga
Avalanche Mailbag 3.0: Landeskog’s Return, MacKinnon’s Comments, Goaltending, & More

Question from Anana
Who do they target in free agency? Sam Bennett, Brad Marchand, etc.

Aarif’s Response
For the first time in years, it feels like predicting the Avs’ offseason isn’t easy. On one hand, they can go out and sign a No. 2 center. And if it’s not Brock Nelson, then it can surely be Sam Bennett. But on the other hand, I wonder if this is the year they decide to shuffle the roster and some of the guys already under contract.

For example, will they decide to move on from Miles Wood or Ross Colton? If so, what will they do with that extra cap space? They can use that as added money for another center, or maybe they decide to shore up their winger depth beyond the top two lines. In that scenario, can Brad Marchand be enticing to come here? Maybe.

The other part I wonder about is the defense. The Avs’ top four has not changed in years. And specifically, I’m referring to the second pairing of Samuel Girard and Josh Manson. Are they going to move on from any of those guys? And if so, will they trade for a younger piece, or will they be more interested in throwing money at someone like Ivan Provorov?

It’s one of those offseasons where they can go in so many different directions. I have faith that they’ll figure it out. But it’s going to be a pivotal summer for this front office. That’s for sure.

Question from Grace Cook
Which players need to leave?

Aarif’s Response
We all know the Avs probably want a do-over on the Wood contract. But the player I keep coming back to is Colton — and not for anything that has to do with his play.

Colton is a luxury that I just don’t think they can afford anymore. They brought him in to be a 3C, but he’s proven to be better on the wing. Given that they have not yet locked in a 2C, and given that their 3C is Charlie Coyle at $5.25 million, do they want their fifth-best winger making the $4 million that Colton makes? Or would they rather shuffle that money around?

Question from Nicholas Guidice
Do you think Bednar separates Necas and MacK? The two righties both wanted to occupy the same zone, often putting ourselves in a pinch. I think if Necas were a lefty, like Mikko, we’d see way better results.

Aarif’s Response
I am so unbelievably curious about what they do with Martin Necas in general. On one hand, he’s got great chemistry with Nathan MacKinnon, and it wouldn’t hurt for him to learn from No. 29 for an entire regular season.

But on the other hand, is Necas better suited for the second line? It’s tough to say right now because we don’t know yet who the No. 2 center is. I like having Gabe Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin on the same line. They were excellent together in 2022 and proved again that they’re effective during the last few games of the Dallas series.

If Necas is moved away from MacKinnon, would you be able to trust Landeskog can play top-line minutes? If so, Necas and Lehkonen can both move down to the second line.

Question from Jeff
What would be the biggest move the Avalanche could make this summer?

Aarif’s Response
I’m not starting any rumors here. I’m simply speculating in my crazy little, imaginative brain that has crazy thoughts from time to time. But, what if contract talks with Necas don’t go well?

I can’t see the Avs wanting to start the season without an extension for the pending unrestricted free agent. Especially if it’s because talks are not going well (like with Rantanen last year).

If that scenario unfolds, would they be forced to trade Necas? That’s the biggest “WOW” move I can see happen this summer. But I would assume they have an idea of what it would take to sign Necas. For all the faults Chris MacFarland and Joe Sakic have with some of their most recent moves, they’ve always done a good job of knowing what it would take to re-sign a guy they’re trading for that isn’t a rental.

Whether it’s Andre Burakovsky, Artturi Lehkonen, Ross Colton, or Casey Mittelstadt. They rarely end up in a situation where they trade for a guy that they plan to keep, and then contract talks go sideways. The only difference is, all of these examples are RFAs. Necas can walk right into UFA status next July. So it’s a little bit different.

Questions from Joe Cerwinske and Chris Duncan
Joe: Do you believe Brock Nelson will stick around? Would he even want to stick around, and would the team even want him back? If the answer is no to any of those questions, is there any likelihood that we could do what Carolina did last year with Jake Guenzel and trade his signing rights to another team (likely Minnesota) to recoup at least some of what we gave up to get him? I simply can’t accept that we would give up the best forward prospect we’ve had in years, and not have anything to show for it just a few months later.

Chris: They gotta bring back Nelson, right? Charlie Coyle as the 2C feels like a disaster waiting to happen.

Aarif’s Response
I would not be against the Avs bringing back Nelson if there’s mutual interest. What I don’t want is for them to sign him just because he’s the easiest 2C option to talk to.

Nelson was fine in some regards but not great in other ways. He’s a good player and I think a full year with Colorado will have make him more effective in the postseason, if he were to re-sign.

But if they think there are better options out there, then explore them. Whether it’s another UFA like Bennett or a trade option. Don’t just sign Nelson because he’s already here unless you absolutely like the fit.

Question from Kris
A new page has been turned in Pittsburgh with the departure of Mike Sullivan. It sends a clear message about which direction the team wants to go. Do you think Sidney Crosby would be the only possible solution to get the Avalanche back on track, and if not, what other solutions do you see?

Aarif’s Response
He’s not the only possible solution, but he would still be a grand slam of an acquisition. And the best option.

I’m of the belief that what’s true today might not be true tomorrow. We’ve learned time and time again that this is the case with professional sports. In January, Crosby was adamant that he was not going to leave Pittsburgh. In March, he reiterated this as the trade deadline approached.

But with the Sullivan move and the clear direction Pittsburgh is taking, I’m curious about whether he’s going to make another public statement about wanting to stay in Pittsburgh for the remainder of his career. Until he does that, I (along with most of you) will continue to speculate about him moving on from the only team he’s ever played for.

I’m sure MacKinnon is going to try to convince him to make the leap.

Question from Neil Bergin
How much can the Avs actually do to improve the roster, given how many assets they gave up to make all the trades this season?

Aarif’s Response
They gave up way too many assets. We know that. But it’s not the end of the road for this team. They still have other future picks and adequate prospects they can move.

I know I’ve been critical of MacFarland but I think people misunderstand my thoughts about the Rantanen trade with me believing this team is officially out of its Cup window. I don’t believe that for a second.

I still believe MacFarland and Sakic can build a winner, and they have plenty of roster players with value that they can trade to improve this team. Whether it’s Colton, Girard, Manson, Necas, etc. They can shuffle the deck with the guys on the team to find what they need. And I think they will.

But honestly, even if they don’t, this is a talented roster that can compete. They already have a better lineup under contract on paper than they did in October of 2024.

Question from Nicholas G
Everyone knows Wood is gone. Who’s Cap casualty surprise? Sneaky value on Sam Girard.

Aarif’s Response
I do wonder about Girard. That’s why I mentioned his name earlier in this piece.

I’m not a Girard hater like some are, but if the front office has its eyes on another defenseman, then maybe they feel a Girard (or Manson) move would be appropriate this offseason to refresh the blueline.

Question from Bees
Following this embarrassing elimination, have you thought about or taken steps with other sports venues to cover a team other than the Avalanche? Are you still as motivated by your work?

Aarif’s Response
I love this question. I’m still very much motivated and will continue to be. I grew up a massive Avalanche fan, but, admittedly, it’ll never feel the same after working this job. I don’t feel the fandom anymore that I felt before becoming a credentialed reporter in 2019. I’m not sure I even would again if I stopped doing this for a living.

I’m motivated by the fact that this has always been my dream job. I’m literally living out the dream that 13-year-old Aarif would be so happy to see come true.

I’m not sure if I’ll ever be interested in covering other sports. But I do think I can see myself working a national role or in another NHL market in the future, if the right opportunities present themselves. But that’s not anytime soon — I love living in Colorado and love living this crazy childhood dream of mine.